Since the beginning of President Donald Trump’s second term in early 2025, U.S. trade policy has taken a sharp protectionist turn, characterized by aggressive tariffs on imports—especially from China, as well as other countries like Mexico and Canada. These measures sparked widespread debate not only in political circles but also in financial markets, triggering an initial multi-trillion dollar sell-off.
But is this just a stumble before the sprint? Could this lead to a powerful comeback in U.S. stocks, similar to previous post-crisis rebounds?
Let’s explore the numbers to understand what might lie ahead…
Everyone is Losing… But China Is Losing More
The trade war that began under Trump’s first term in 2018 intensified significantly with the renewed tariffs in April 2025. The U.S. imposed new tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods. China retaliated with an 84% increase in tariffs on U.S. products. The global markets have been volatile ever since—and further escalation seems likely.
U.S.-China Trade Snapshot (As of April 2025)
Sources: Bloomberg, BEA, Yahoo Finance
| Category | Value (USD) |
|---|---|
| Total Trade (Goods & Services) | 650 billion |
| U.S. Exports to China (Goods) | 150 billion |
| U.S. Exports to China (Services) | 60 billion |
| Total U.S. Exports to China | 210 billion |
| U.S. Imports from China (Goods) | 420 billion |
| U.S. Imports from China (Services) | 20 billion |
| Total U.S. Imports from China | 440 billion |
| Trade Deficit in Favor of China | 230 billion |
Why China Is the Bigger Loser
- Heavy reliance on exports—over 16% of China’s exports go to the U.S.
- Tariffs are making Chinese goods less competitive in the U.S. market.
- Foreign companies are shifting operations out of China to lower-cost countries.
- Industrial sectors like electronics and textiles are slowing down.
What About the U.S.?
While U.S. consumers and some companies will feel short-term price hikes, medium- and long-term effects are expected to be positive:
- Boost in domestic manufacturing
- Direct government support for industrial sectors
- Rebuilding investor confidence
- Job creation in heavy and medium industries
U.S. Stocks: Shaky Ground or Springboard for Growth?
According to JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs (late 2024):
U.S. equities are poised for gains thanks to:
- Stronger local production
- Improved corporate earnings
- Reduced reliance on overseas supply chains
YTD Performance of Key U.S. Stocks (Jan–Apr 2025):
| Company | Stock Price Increase |
|---|---|
| Caterpillar | +18% |
| Tesla | +22% |
| Boeing | +15% |
These increases reflect renewed investor confidence in U.S.-centered industrial growth.
“China has made enough off us for decades. Now, we’re taking back control.” — Donald Trump (April 7, 2025)
What Is America Betting On?
- Bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.
- Strengthening innovation and technology
- Supporting domestic startups and industries
- Building an independent, resilient economy
Conclusion
Based on the data, U.S. stocks may be on the verge of a major recovery, supported by protectionist policies that could redraw the global trade map.
While China faces mounting internal and external challenges, the U.S. is betting on reshoring industry and leading the next wave of economic power.
The market doesn’t reward the most knowledgeable—it rewards the most adaptable. And those who act early often win big.
Is this the right time to invest in promising U.S. companies? Many indicators say: Yes.